Election Polls, The Mass Media, “Horse Race Journalism” And You
by Richard Cameron
Election Polls, The Mass Media, “Horse Race Journalism” And You
No doubt you’ve noticed that the mass media is pummeling us with election polls, the most incessant being the horse race between President Biden and former impeached loser one termer Donald Trump. It started in Fall of last year and has gained momentum as the weeks and months roll toward the general campaign come this late Summer.
It’s time that consumers of news in America, arrive at the realization that during election cycles, the polling we are all subjected to, has a specific agenda and the media entities that commission and regurgitate them are committing journalistic malpractice. I realize this is a sweeping assertion, but as we delve further into this subject, we will demonstrate what the true objective behind these polls actually consists of.
A question came up on the National Compass Facebook group, which was “why are we doing so badly in the polls?”
I took this to mean the parade of polls from various media platforms in partnership with one or another polling organization, some examples being the first widely reported polls, the New York Times / Sienna College survey about a head to head match up between President Joe Biden and one term loser, scores of indictments, multiple criminal and civil trials defendant Donald Trump as well as a previous Washington Post poll late last year and several we’ve seen consistently since the beginning of this year. My answer to the question was as follows:
Two reasons. One is that nearly all the polls where a media entity partners up with a polling entity, involve an implicit understanding that the polling results are going to be engineered to drive the maximum amount of traffic and engagement, in social media and on television.
The second reason – and this is a persistent element going back to Trump’s term in office, is that pollsters are dealing with a factor of the reluctant Trump voter, who disdain discussing their views with the hated media and the people conducting the polls – a stranger’s voice at the other end of the phone, who could be anyone.
Therefore, they hang the phone up. In order to then produce poll results, the polling entities must then construct some sort of calculus that estimates how large the GOP / MAGA cohort of the electorate actually is and how many people weren’t represented in the gathering of responses.
Even the most well intentioned effort to do so, is subject to gross inaccuracy – as evidenced by how laughably wrong about national elections they have been, dating back to the 2018 midterms, the 2020 presidential election and even prior to that. None of them will disclose their methodology.
The bottom line? Ignore these polls now – 9 months before the election and pretty much ignore them in the weeks prior to the election. Just ignore them completely.
Another part of the electorate that is badly under represented in these polls – are political independents. But political independents are now what actually determine the outcome of most all elections now, particularly as it relates to the stakes in battleground or swing states. The most likely number based on data collected is that between 40 and 45 percent of eligible voters consider themselves independents. There’s a bit of nuance within this, in regard to what people really mean by “independent”.
A segment of self described independents, nevertheless typically lean a bit in one partisan direction or the other. So you can have “Republican leaning independents” and “Democratic leaning independents”, as part of the mix, together with independents who are really serious about being partisan neutral in their decisions about an election. And there is a fair amount of volatility as to the ultimate decisions independents make from one election cycle to the next.
We have CNN on the flat screen a large portion of the day, although I don’t watch but some of the coverage when I happen to be in the kitchen cleaning up the mess our “resident chef” makes after meals are served. I’m not going to go on a tangent here about my conflicted impressions of CNN, other than to say, it is a two headed monster.
There is a lot of valuable programming on the network and a lot of top notch reporters and anchors. On the other hand, there is, too often in my estimation, a lot of narratives under the supposition of “Breaking News”, that have more than a slight odor of Yellow journalism. The coverage of the recent polls that, if taken literally, spell gloom for Joe Biden and his party, are as good an example as anything.
Yellow Journalism, as it was known and referenced in the late period of the 19th and on into the 20th century, was disseminated primarily in newspapers, the Hearst newspaper empire being the most notable, but by no means the only practitioner. It still exists, as we will see, in online and print media as well as televised news, but the style of the delivery is not nearly as overt and obvious. The tactics have evolved as well. A facet of today’s mode of Yellow journalism that we will look at here, is what mass media analysts describe as “Horse Race Journalism”.
Michael Galley, writing in exepose.com, sums up the deficiencies of Horse Race journalism:
“According to a study from the Harvard Kennedy School, policy stands accounted for just 10% of the overall campaign coverage of the 2016 US presidential election, suggesting that important policy issues are all too frequently overlooked. By journalists placing such a heavy focus on the election ‘race’, the public suffers from a scarcity of information regarding crucial policy issues and as such they head to the polls well-informed of the likely outcome, but without knowledge of what this outcome might mean for them, and the country as a whole. Assuming that voters make objectively better choices the more well-informed they are, then too much horse race journalism has negative consequences for the country as a whole.”
Researchers Johanna Dunaway, an associate professor of communication at Texas A&M University, and Regina G. Lawrence, associate dean of the University of Oregon School of Journalism and Communication in Portland, observe that regarding Horse Race journalism,
“Given a close race, newspapers of many types will tend to converge on a game-framed election narrative and, by extension, stories focusing on who’s up/who’s down will crowd out stories about the policy issues they are presumably being elected to address. And, as the days-’til-election variable shows, this pattern will intensify across the course of a close race.”
Media polling is the centerpiece of Horse Race journalism. The only people that have pointed out the absurdity and contradictions of these polls are random guests on the various programs.But there is no let up with this, from week to week, month to month and day to day, they keep slapping us in the face with these polls.
The entire point and motive of the constant featuring of polling is the competition, not so much between the candidates themselves, but between the networks and the papers to drive engagement and the more emotionally gripping the polling forecast, the more command they exercise over the attention of readers and viewers. Keep in mind that there is a static pool of consumers of news in the environment of established print media and televised news and the fight over the non-far right contingent of viewers (i.e., everyone who doesn’t watch Fox News), is fierce. They don’t want to sooth you, they need to alarm you.
They know that the prospect of Donald Trump – criminal, demented, power hungry, malignant narcissist, would be autocrat and servant to the absolute most ignorant and hateful element of our society – frightens anyone who isn’t too distracted by breads and circuses to notice. And now, yet another NYT / Siena College poll – once again showing President Biden behind Trump, this time by 5 points, 48 to 43%.
If this sort of polling appears to you to be fictitious on its face, you’re not wrong. It is. And evidently, more and more Americans are becoming suspicious regarding it. A Marist poll from March 2017, reported that six in 10 registered voters do not trust opinion surveys – ironically even though they obviously participated in one that derived that statistic.
In the next installment of this series, we’ll examine the NYT poll from late last year, as a starting point for an in depth analysis of not only how fictitious these polls are and how unscientific and defective, but also more about what is it that is driving them, which I think you will find intriguing, because we have only scratched the surface here.
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