The Irrational Exuberance Of Consumer Confidence Indexes As Economic Indicators

chart tracking volatility of consumer confidence surveys from November 2018 to April 2019

by Richard Cameron   The Consumer Confidence Board released survey numbers for May, which showed an increase in the index from April’s 129.2 to 134.1.  What are these surveys asking, who is being asked and should anyone rely on them for an indication of the economy’s performance in the near term or beyond? The two main surveys that investors follow are the Consumer Confidence Board – actually conducted by the same people (Nielsen) that estimate TV ratings and the University of Michigan. There are some other surveys that troll these two,…

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Piercing The Republican Propaganda

by Wes Walker via libertyisftw.org The Matrix is a system, Neo. That system is our enemy… look around, what do you see? Business men, teachers, lawyers, carpenters. The very minds of the people we are trying to save… You have to understand, most of these people are not ready to be unplugged. And many of them are so inured, so hopelessly dependent on the system, that they will fight to protect it. – Morpheus, the Matrix So the Republican Party is making the argument that the economy is doing much…

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The Economics Quarterly: 2018Q1

bulls and bears

by Wes Walker via libertyisftw.org GDP GROWTH DATA The preliminary estimate for the first quarter of 2018 was 2.3%, which extended the period of time the GDP growth rate has been 2.0% or higher to over a year. The final growth figure for the fourth quarter of 2017 was 2.9%. There has not been a negative GDP growth rate since the first quarter of 2014. GDP Growth Rate (1/1/2002-05/4/2018) INFLATION RATE DATA The inflation rate rose to 2.4% in March, the seventh month with an inflation rate above 2%. The…

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