The Irrational Exuberance Of Consumer Confidence Indexes As Economic Indicators

chart tracking volatility of consumer confidence surveys from November 2018 to April 2019

by Richard Cameron   The Consumer Confidence Board released survey numbers for May, which showed an increase in the index from April’s 129.2 to 134.1.  What are these surveys asking, who is being asked and should anyone rely on them for an indication of the economy’s performance in the near term or beyond? The two main surveys that investors follow are the Consumer Confidence Board – actually conducted by the same people (Nielsen) that estimate TV ratings and the University of Michigan. There are some other surveys that troll these two,…

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The Fallacious Narrative Of The Trump Economic Turnaround – Retail And Consumers

photo credit: Dale Gerhard / Press of Atlantic City by Richard Cameron Certain individuals inclined to see all things Trump, through the lenses of rose colored glasses – including the economy, are ignoring the warning signs of the hard economic data. Credit Suisse, the Wall Street Journal and Fitch are not. The backdrop to the data that these three observers of the real economy are examining, are the GDP numbers for the first quarter of 2017. Cheerleaders of the script that Donald Trump was going to usher in a new cycle…

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