The Irrational Exuberance Of Consumer Confidence Indexes As Economic Indicators

chart tracking volatility of consumer confidence surveys from November 2018 to April 2019

by Richard Cameron   The Consumer Confidence Board released survey numbers for May, which showed an increase in the index from April’s 129.2 to 134.1.  What are these surveys asking, who is being asked and should anyone rely on them for an indication of the economy’s performance in the near term or beyond? The two main surveys that investors follow are the Consumer Confidence Board – actually conducted by the same people (Nielsen) that estimate TV ratings and the University of Michigan. There are some other surveys that troll these two,…

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The Economy in Context

by Wes Walker via libertyisftw.org The most recent job numbers released on March 9th by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, represented a strong preliminary number for February that, should they hold, could be a solid piece of good economic news since the tax reform bill passed last year. It remains likely that the numbers will not survive the tariffs put into place last week, assuming they aren’t revised downward next month, and, despite the bump in the stock market from the positive preliminary jobs numbers, it’s important to keep in…

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